Maraetai, Auckland.

This is more than double the 114 suburbs where values increased over the three months to June.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says the signs of a turning point become clearer using the timelier quarterly measure, as opposed to a slower-moving annual comparison.

“Back in June, 71 suburbs had recorded a rise of at least 0.5 per cent in the previous three months. But spring forward to September, and that count has risen to 188,” he says.

In the strongest markets, values have risen in 29 suburbs by at least 2 per cent since June, with 13 of those in Auckland and four in Wellington city. Christchurch is also showing signs of a new growth cycle, with 14 suburbs in the Garden City up by at least 1 per cent since June.

Over the past 12 months only 47 suburbs had value rises, with Karori, Wellington; Lower Shotover, Queenstown; and Blaketown, Greymouth the strongest performers with values up between 5-7 per cent.

On the flip side, 877 suburbs recorded value falls, with 257 of those suburbs at least 10 per cent down.

What’s happening in the main centres:

Auckland

Signs of growth are re-emerging with 76 suburbs seeing value rises in the past three months, led by Herald Island, Maraetai and Mellons Bay up 3 per cent apiece. Property values fell over the quarter in the remaining 123 Auckland suburbs analysed.

Herne Bay remains Auckland’s priciest suburb with a median value of $3.2 million, with Auckland Central the most affordable at $520,200.

Hamilton

Median values increased in 11 of the 34 suburbs analysed, with Fitzroy the strongest performer with 1 per cent quarterly growth. Values in Baverstock were unchanged over the past three months, while Rototuna was the weakest suburb at -1.7 per cent.

Harrowfield is Hamilton’s most expensive suburb at $1.07 million and Bader the cheapest at roughly $578,000.

Tauranga

Signs of a trough are slowly emerging in Tauranga, with six of the 14 suburbs analysed recording either flat or rising values since June, led by Ohauiti at 0.6 per cent growth.

Mount Maunganui is the most expensive suburb with a median value of $1.33 million, and Parkvale is the most affordable at $640,050.

Wellington

Of the 96 suburbs analysed in Wellington, values were flat or rising in 27 areas. Ten suburbs had values rise by at least 1 per cent, including Newlands and Maupuia by 2 per cent, Southgate by 2.1 per cent and Paparangi by almost 3 per cent.

Wellington still has 21 $1 million-plus suburbs, down from 46 last year, with Seatoun at $1.69 million the most expensive, and Wellington Central the most affordable at $461,900.

Christchurch

Christchurch is also showing signs of a turning point, with 50 suburbs flat or rising since June. Fourteen have risen in value by at least 1 per cent, with Hillmorton up by nearly 3 per cent.

At $1.72 million, Scarborough is the most expensive suburb, and Phillipstown the cheapest at $447,050.

Dunedin

The weakest of the main centres, Dunedin only has two out of 60 suburbs analysed where values have flattened out. Opoho and Liberton had values rise 0.1 per cent apiece over the quarter, with value falls ranging from a minor 0.1 per cent dip in Macandrew Bay to a larger 4.4 per cent fall in Kaikorai.

A year ago, Maori Hill and Vauxhall both had median values above $1 million. However, they’re now both below, with Maori Hill the most expensive at $952,700. South Dunedin is the most affordable at sub-$400,000.

Market forecast

Davidson says while the latest data confirms the depth and breadth of the property value downturn over the past year, the signs of a turning point are evident from the past few months.

“An increasing number of suburbs are showing growth, consistent with a general peak for mortgage rates, high net migration, a strong labour market, and easing credit rules,” he says.

“However, even though a National election victory and changed housing policies may well provide an additional boost to values, we still think the next phase will be muted – restrained by poor affordability, ‘higher for longer’ mortgage rates, and caps on debt-to-income ratios.”